Portfolio value
The Alpaca paper account, against the same money invested in the S&P 500 (same start, same deposits).
Daily closes from the Alpaca account, plus the live value now (updates every 30 seconds).
Current holdings
A third each, re-split monthly. A stock stays while it ranks in the top 6.
| Stock | Value | Gain | Rank now | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Today's top 10
The quality pool ranked by trend — the list the three holdings are picked from.
| # | Stock | 6 months | Status | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Rebalance by rebalance
Read from Alpaca's own orders, newest first. A holding is sold only once it drops out of the top 6; its slot goes to the highest-ranked stock not held, and the stocks that stay are re-split to a third each.
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Every position
Result = money taken out (sales, plus today's value while still held) minus money put in, so the monthly top-ups and trims are counted.
| Stock | Sold | Result | Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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How Updraft picks its three stocks
Two filters that each worked in 27 years of data — quality first, then trend — and a simple monthly routine.
The 1,000 largest by market value, price ≥ $5, at least $5M traded a day, US-dollar accounts.
The top 30% on capital discipline: buybacks, no new share issuance, low dilution, free-cash-flow yield, ROE, margins.
The pool ranked by its 50- vs 200-day average and its 6-month return (skipping the latest month).
On the first trading day of each month: keep a stock while it's still in the top 6, replace the rest from the top.
27 years of backtest
Monthly, after trading costs, with companies that later went bust or were delisted included.
Growth of $10,000
Log scale — equal distances mean equal percentage gains.
View as table
Every calendar year
First and last years are partial.
View as table
The falls along the way
Distance below the previous peak at each month-end.
What any 12 months looked like
Share of all 12-month periods by return.
What it could grow to
20,000 simulated futures built from the real monthly returns (in 12-month blocks, so crashes and rallies stay clustered). Enter your amounts; the ranges scale exactly. Charts shade the middle half of outcomes; tables show the wider 10th–90th range.